WaPo misleads about Covid deaths

The CDC and the media continue to stoke Covid fear

Dan Diamond at the Washington Post is out with a new article titled “Covid is still a leading cause of death as the virus recedes.” My first thought was to double-check the date on the article to make sure it was actually written in April 2023! Some people are still desperate to keep Americans fearful about the virus, even as the data shows Covid is becoming less and less of a concern for most Americans. Many people in the media have latched on to Covid, while most Americans have moved on, and this article is a perfect example of how the media continues to distort the risk and mislead the public in an effort to stoke fear and control behavior.

Misleading Cause of Death Ranking

There were several key issues I wanted to address from this article. The first is the claim from the headline that Covid is still a leading cause of death. The article links to a “Health Tracker” published by Kaiser Family Foundation, which was last updated several months ago, in November 2022. The last period of data they show has Covid listed as a top three cause of death — for the time period January - September 2022. January 2022 was the peak of the Omicron wave, so this is hardly representative of the current situation.

COVID-19 leading cause of death ranking (KFF, November 10, 2022)

KFF combines data from their own Covid tracker with CDC data for all other causes of death, instead of using CDC data for all sources. This means that Covid deaths include surveillance deaths from public health departments by report date, and it includes deaths where Covid is not listed as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate. But they compare it with deaths from other causes of disease where they are listed as the underlying cause of death. This is a common technique used to exaggerate Covid deaths compared to other causes.

Using the same CDC source that KFF cites for monthly deaths from other diseases, from Jan. - Sept. 2022, the CDC reports 164,994 deaths where Covid is listed as the underlying cause of death, and 211,752 deaths where Covid is listed as multiple cause of death. Based on that, Covid would be ranked 4th as an underlying cause of death during that time period. For the past six full months, Oct. 2022 - Mar. 2023, Covid ranks as the 8th leading cause of death, behind Alzheimer’s and diabetes.

Eradication?!?

The article acknowledges that Covid is “retreating” but includes this curious line: “But retreat is not the same thing as eradication.”

First, some definitions are important here. Elimination of a disease means the disease incidence has been reduced to zero or almost zero in a geographic area with continuous control measures (like measles and polio). Eradication of disease, on the other hand, means the disease incidence is reduced to zero worldwide, and control measures are no longer needed. Eradication is basically a pipe dream. The only disease that has ever been eradicated is smallpox, and that was only possible through intense effort, and because smallpox had many characteristics that made it a good candidate for eradication, unlike Covid.

We will never eradicate Covid, or even eliminate it in America. That is not a realistic goal that anyone should be aiming for at this point. Most Americans understand this and that’s why they are living their lives normally, enjoying family gatherings and other events, like the religious celebrations that the author pointed out many people “gathered maskless” for this month. Anyone who believes we should be masking and living in fear until Covid is eradicated is advocating for permanent restrictions on life.

Deborah Birx weighs in

The article includes a quote from Deborah Birx, who was brought in early on during the Trump administration, and worked tirelessly to scare Americans about Covid. She complained that the Covid data isn’t being presented in a way that “resonates” with people. In other words, she’s arguing for more propaganda, even in 2023.

She also cited two studies about post-Covid complications. One was a large UK study that showed health risks after Covid returned to baseline by 12 weeks after infection. This study was actually shared widely by many people to disprove long-term health effects from Covid, but Birx somehow seems unaware of the implications of the findings. The other study she cited was from Estonia from the first year of the pandemic (through Feb 2021), and almost entirely pre-vaccination. (Estonia was <3% fully vaccinated on Feb. 28, 2021.) That study also showed almost all of the effect of increased mortality was with severe and critical cases, or during the acute period for non-severe Covid. It is extremely misleading to share this in 2023 as evidence of post-Covid mortality risks.

Overcounting Deaths?

The article also addresses some of the debate about how Covid deaths are counted, referencing the “from Covid” versus “with Covid” arguments from Leana Wen and others. To counter that, Diamond cites Debra Houry, the CDC’s new chief medical officer, who argued that deaths are likely undercounted. She gave an example of an elderly person who has a traumatic fall and dies, but isn’t tested for Covid, as a potential “missed” Covid death.

Most Americans understand that an elderly person who dies after a traumatic fall is an accidental death from a fall, not a death from Covid or any other disease. We wouldn’t count that as a death from disease under normal circumstances. As Dr. Shira Doron points out, we are counting Covid deaths in a way that we don’t do with other infectious diseases. So even when Covid deaths are counted “accurately” per CDC guidance, they aren’t comparable to how we track deaths due to other diseases.

Covid vs. Motor Vehicle Accidents

As another data point to show that Americans don’t understand the risks of Covid death, the article cites an Axios/Ipsos poll from August 2022, in which 35% of adults answered True to the following question: “At this time, more Americans die from traffic accidents every day than from COVID-19.” While that is not accurate, according to official CDC data, the article uses flawed numbers to overstate Covid deaths and understate motor vehicle deaths. (It’s also worth noting that August 2022 was the peak of Covid deaths in summer 2022.)

The article states that 3,850 Americans died in traffic accidents in August 2022, and cites a document containing “statistical projections” for motor vehicle traffic fatalities. But CDC death certificate data from August 2022 shows 4,180 deaths from motor vehicle accidents in August 2022.

Then the article states that “3,918 people died from Covid in the last week of August alone.” I’m honestly not sure where that number comes from, but it is not accurate. According to the CDC death certificate data for the week ending August 27, 2022, there were 3,045 deaths with Covid anywhere on the death certificate, and 1,966 where Covid is listed as the underlying cause of death. In fact, the CDC hasn’t reported a week with 3,918 or more deaths with Covid on the death certificate in over a year (the week ending March 12, 2022).

We also know that risks vary substantially by age, so it’s important to take that into consideration when comparing risks. For people under 65, in August 2022, deaths from motor vehicle accidents (3,284) were ~50% higher than deaths with Covid on the death certificate (2,163), according to data from CDC WONDER.

The People’s CDC

The article also includes criticism of the Biden administration and the CDC with this quote from a report by an independent group that calls themselves the “People’s CDC.” This group is made up of public health activists, who argue for Zero Covid strategies. It is not a government agency, despite their misleading name.

I find their language about tolerating deaths is absurd, as is the notion that the CDC or the White House has done anything to downplay Covid risks. We “tolerate” deaths from Covid much as we “tolerate” deaths from other common risks in life, in that participating in society involves certain risks. We take risks everyday, including driving a car, playing sports, and many other normal human activities.

I also find their mention of racial demographics odd, because as a text box at the end of the article points out that “…pandemic trends have shifted and now White people are more likely to die from covid than Black people.”

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At this point, people who are still afraid of Covid are welcome to live the rest of their lives avoiding common respiratory viruses. But it’s clear that most people have moved on, and we are not going back. People all over the world have decided that spending time with friends and family and enjoying their life is more important than trying to prevent what has become a mild illness for most.